Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning

Federation of American Scientists and the Natural Resources Defense Council, November 2006

Researchers Hans Kristensen and Stan Noms assess China's nuclear arsenal and review U.S. intelligence community's predictions of a Chinese nuclear buildup.These predictions have led the United States to increase its nuclear targeting of China. Based on unclassified and declassified U.S. government documents as well as commercial satellite images, the 250-page report estimates that China has a stockpile of approximately 200 nuclear warheads, of which some 140 are deployed. About 100 of the warheads are for delivery by ballistic missiles while 40 warheads are part of bombs for delivery by aircraft.

The estimates dispute a core prediction made by the US. intelligence community that the number of Chinese warheads primarily targeted against the continental United States will increase from 20 warheads today to between 75 and 100 warheads by 2015. In particular, the report challenges assumptions that 40-55 new DF31A missiles will be deployed over the next nine years, pointing out that the DF31A has yet even to be flight-tested.

The report also provides lower estimates for China's arsenal of nuclear submarines. It asserts that the Chinese submarine fleet will level out to a total of 40 submarines in the next decade, a steep decline from 120 submarines in the mid-1980s, and that China's lone ballistic missile submarine has never sailed on a nuclear deterrent patrol.